Question

In 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters109

Community Prediction58.7% (53% - 66%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 58.7%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Jul 3, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2029

Geopolitics

United States

Nuclear Posture Review

Cold War

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

REVEALED: The five countries quietly stockpiling nukes amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Mar 7, 2025

Donald Trump Wants to 'Get Rid' of Nuclear Weapons

Newsweek•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?

4.78k

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

7.28k

Comments

? comments