Question

When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?

33 comments33

Total Forecasters117

Community Prediction

Jul 2029

(Dec 2027 - Aug 2031)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	Dec 2027	Jul 2029	Aug 2031
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Dec 2027	—
median	Jul 2029	—
upper 75%	Aug 2031	—

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Jul 2, 2019

Closes:

Jul 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2036

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 4, 2019

It’s Looking More Likely NASA Will Fly the Artemis II Mission

Wired•Mar 26, 2025

NASA website axes a pledge to land a woman and a person of color on the moon

NPR Online News•Mar 26, 2025

NASA says Trump is responsible for stranded astronaut saga ending: 'It would not have happened'

Daily Mail•Mar 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

33 comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Jul 2, 2019

Closes:

Jul 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2036

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 4, 2019

It’s Looking More Likely NASA Will Fly the Artemis II Mission

Wired•Mar 26, 2025

NASA website axes a pledge to land a woman and a person of color on the moon

NPR Online News•Mar 26, 2025

NASA says Trump is responsible for stranded astronaut saga ending: 'It would not have happened'

Daily Mail•Mar 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

MetaculusM

When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?

Make a Prediction

Comments

Sylvain

Jim1776

Jgalt

casens

sebk

casens

nagolinc

sebk

Neniu

casens

sebk

Jgalt

uganda

Jgalt

Jgalt

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