Group

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Forecast Timeline

20%

10%

Make a Prediction

	25th	median	75th
5%	2027-06 ...	2029-03 ...	2032-05 ...
20%	2030-10 ...	2033-08 ...	2037-02 ...
10%	2028-08 ...	2030-05 ...	2032-08 ...

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2045-01

...

2027-06

2029-03

2032-05

0.3%

Authors:

j.m.

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

2030-04

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.03

Comments

? comments

Authors:

j.m.

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Cybertruck Finally Gets Full Self-Driving (Supervised)

Wired•Oct 1, 2024

Waymo begins offering robotaxi rides in Austin to certain members of the public

TechCrunch•Oct 2, 2024

After a decade of Elon Musk promising Tesla robotaxis, here’s what we know

CNBC•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

2030-04

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.03

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

Comments

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?