Question

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction5% (2% - 15%)

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50%

community: 5%

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Authors:

pashka24 Emi anna.k.hennig EdwardStoppard

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Politics

Hamas expresses optimism for Gaza deal even as obstacles remain

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Negotiators say Israel and Hamas are inching toward a ceasefire deal. This is what it may look like

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Could Israel’s Netanyahu be about to agree to a Gaza ceasefire?

Al Jazeera•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

0.1%

Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza?

Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?

91%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

pashka24 Emi anna.k.hennig EdwardStoppard

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Politics

Hamas expresses optimism for Gaza deal even as obstacles remain

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Negotiators say Israel and Hamas are inching toward a ceasefire deal. This is what it may look like

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Could Israel’s Netanyahu be about to agree to a Gaza ceasefire?

Al Jazeera•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

0.1%

Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza?

Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?

91%

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Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza?

Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?

Comments

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza?

Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza?

Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza?

Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?