Question

Major contentious CRISPR patent to be overturned?

Resolved :No57%

12 comments12

Total Forecasters87

Community Prediction57% (48% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 57%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-34.7

Community Peer Score

39.0

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

paulgabrielsen

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Leahy–Smith America Invents Act

United States Patent and Trademark Office

Biotechnology

Emmanuelle Charpentier

Why Arm and Qualcomm's legal battle could have big implications for the chip world

Business Insider•Dec 17, 2024

5 Of The Most Important Medical Breakthroughs Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Every AI Copyright Lawsuit in the US, Visualized

Wired•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?

42%

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

95%

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

paulgabrielsen

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Leahy–Smith America Invents Act

United States Patent and Trademark Office

Biotechnology

Emmanuelle Charpentier

Why Arm and Qualcomm's legal battle could have big implications for the chip world

Business Insider•Dec 17, 2024

5 Of The Most Important Medical Breakthroughs Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Every AI Copyright Lawsuit in the US, Visualized

Wired•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?

42%

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

95%

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

10%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Major contentious CRISPR patent to be overturned?

Make a Prediction

Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

Comments

Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?

Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?