Question
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
Total Forecasters12
Community Prediction2025-08-07 (2025-02-18 - 2026-03-05)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <2024-10-01 | 3.0% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | Feb 2025 | — |
| median | Aug 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | Mar 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2030-01-01 | 0.2% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Oct 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
