Question

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters6

Community Prediction2026-02

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<2024-10

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-01

...

8.1%

2025-06

2026-02

2027-01

2.2%

Authors:

Jacob314

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

2028-02

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

43%

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

96.6

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jacob314

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Top AI Labs Have 'Very Weak' Risk Management, Study Says

Time•Oct 2, 2024

Google says its AI designs chips better than humans – experts disagree

New Scientist•Oct 3, 2024

'A lot of money is going to get wasted': MIT economist sounds the alarm on AI hype

Business Insider•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

2028-02

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

43%

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

96.6

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

Make a Prediction

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

Comments

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?