Question

Will the banana plague reach Latin America?

Resolved :No

4 comments4

Total Forecasters116

Community Prediction68%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 68%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-104.6

Community Peer Score

22.6

median 68.0%mean 67.3%

Authors:

sophia.magnone

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Natural Sciences

Agriculture

Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. cubense

Will US consumers be unable to purchase the Cavendish banana at major US grocery chains on December 31, 2029?

18%

Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide before 2035?

48%

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

31.2%

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