Question

When will the first man celebrate his 120th birthday?

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction2043-10-24 (2039-07-24 - 2049-01-06)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2060-12-31
community	Jul 2039	Oct 2043	Jan 2049	9.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Jul 2039	—
median	Oct 2043	—
upper 75%	Jan 2049	—
Upper bound
>2060-12-31	9.1%	—

Authors:

Dumbledores_Army

Opened:

Oct 19, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2061

Health & Pandemics

'Oldest woman in the world' dies 'aged 122': Family mourn mother-of-seven who put her long life down to 'sleeping and drinking'

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Living Longer, Planning Smarter: Future Impact Of More Centenarians

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

No Humans Born In The 1800s Are Still Alive, But These 3 ‘Ultra Surviving’ Animals Are—Here’s Their Story

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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Authors:

Dumbledores_Army

Opened:

Oct 19, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2061

Health & Pandemics

'Oldest woman in the world' dies 'aged 122': Family mourn mother-of-seven who put her long life down to 'sleeping and drinking'

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Living Longer, Planning Smarter: Future Impact Of More Centenarians

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

No Humans Born In The 1800s Are Still Alive, But These 3 ‘Ultra Surviving’ Animals Are—Here’s Their Story

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the next person reach 120 years of age?

2035-09-25

When will the first person reach 150 years of age?

2131-07-17

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

30%