MetaculusM

Question

[Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?

Resolved :No59%

2

Total Forecasters5

Community Prediction59% (58% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 59%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-31.4

Community Peer Score

0.5

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 21, 2024

Closes:

Oct 30, 2024

Resolves:

Nov 2, 2024

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 21, 2024

Closes:

Oct 30, 2024

Resolves:

Nov 2, 2024

2024 Leaderboard

The message voters around the world sent to leaders in 2024: ‘You’re fired’

PBS NewsHour•Jan 27, 2025

Mozambique top court confirms governing party’s win in disputed election

Al Jazeera•Jan 28, 2025

Mozambique’s controversial election result upheld: What to know

Al Jazeera•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch