MetaculusM

Question

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

3

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction210 (132 - 385)

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CDF

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My Prediction

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>5k

...

...

...

...

132.1

210.3

385.5

3.4%

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 21, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 10, 2026

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

US suffers first H5N1 bird flu death: Patient in Louisiana dies from virus dubbed 'biggest pandemic threat'

Daily Mail•Jan 25, 2025

HMPV, Bird Flu and Norovirus: What Should US Be Most Worried About?

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Infectious disease expert reveals the pathogens that could spark another pandemic in 2025

Daily Mail•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Oct 21, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 10, 2026

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

US suffers first H5N1 bird flu death: Patient in Louisiana dies from virus dubbed 'biggest pandemic threat'

Daily Mail•Jan 25, 2025

HMPV, Bird Flu and Norovirus: What Should US Be Most Worried About?

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Infectious disease expert reveals the pathogens that could spark another pandemic in 2025

Daily Mail•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch