Question

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

6 comments6

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction4% (2.3% - 5%)

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50%

community: 4%

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine

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Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Health & Pandemics

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Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

85%

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Predictive Analysis: Pandemic 2.0 Will Drop Early in Trump Term

PJ Media•Dec 13, 2024

Mpox became a global health emergency for the second time in 2024

New Scientist•Dec 14, 2024

How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

85%

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Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

Comments

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?