Question

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction2% (1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Oct 23, 2024

Closes:

Jun 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2025

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Bright Line Watch

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

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19%

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Oct 23, 2024

Closes:

Jun 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2025

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Bright Line Watch

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

What is Sudan virus and how worried should we be?

Independent•Feb 13, 2025

How Bad Are COVID, Flu and RSV This Winter?

Scientific American•Feb 16, 2025

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Scientific American•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

19%