Question

How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction34.6

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>40

...

31.4

34.61

37.7

14.1%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

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Geopolitics

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?

How many mass shootings will be reported in the United States in the following years?

629

Comments

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

Pentagon Plans $6 Billion in Ukraine Aid Ahead of Presidential Change

•Nov 8, 2024

The US needs ammunition for its next big war — a lot of it

Business Insider•Nov 9, 2024

Taiwan wants to buy F-35 fighter jets and Patriot missiles to show Trump it's serious: report

Business Insider•Nov 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?

How many mass shootings will be reported in the United States in the following years?

629