Question

Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction

(6% - 8%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 6%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Oct 23, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 1, 2024

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

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Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

13%

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

10%

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

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