Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

There's still time to compete for $3,500 in commenting prizes: Learn how you can help GiveWell help others.

M

Question

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

1
9
15 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 14

Make a Prediction

Me
Low
84.8%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)
13%
High (or above, such as Very High)
2.1%
Total: ?
(? remaining)
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
johnnycaffeine
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
Health & Pandemics
2024-2025 Leaderboard

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