Question

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction51% (45% - 66%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 51%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine nikos RyanBeck skmmcj

Opened:

Oct 31, 2024

Closes:

Jul 2, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Oct 31, 2030

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Health & Pandemics

Deadly flu season: CDC reports more deaths from flu than COVID in recent weekly data

USA Today•Feb 13, 2025

Disease digest: The truth about the flu, measles, whooping cough and other viruses spiking in the US

New York Post•Feb 13, 2025

The U.S. Is Having Its Mildest Covid Winter Yet

New York Times•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?

What will be the combined maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people relative to the maximum weekly rate of the peak disease in the 2024-25 season?

1.43

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

45.6%

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