Question

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction10.9B

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100B

...

3.259B

10.86B

29.86B

12.1%

Authors:

pranomostro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?

8.77B

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

66%

What will be the world population in the following years?

8.18B

Comments

? comments

Authors:

pranomostro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?

8.77B

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

66%

What will be the world population in the following years?

8.18B