Question

Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?

Resolved :Yes99.9%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction99.9% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.9%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-21.3

Community Peer Score

0.8

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Can the International Criminal Court survive the next four years?

Al Jazeera•Dec 18, 2024

Report: Netanyahu to Skip Holocaust Memorial in Poland Due to ICC Warrant

Breitbart•Dec 21, 2024

Netanyahu Might Not Attend Auschwitz Event Over Arrest Fears: Report

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?

Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Can the International Criminal Court survive the next four years?

Al Jazeera•Dec 18, 2024

Report: Netanyahu to Skip Holocaust Memorial in Poland Due to ICC Warrant

Breitbart•Dec 21, 2024

Netanyahu Might Not Attend Auschwitz Event Over Arrest Fears: Report

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?

Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

0.1%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?

Make a Prediction

ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?

Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Comments

ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?

Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?

Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?

Will Israel be found guilty in South Africa's genocide case by the ICJ before January 1, 2027?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?