Question
What will be the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q4 2025?
Total Forecasters30
Community Prediction
8.05%
(5.35% - 14.7%)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1% | 0.3% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 5.352% | — |
| median | 8.054% | — |
| upper 75% | 14.72% | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >20% | 18.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 10, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 20, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 17, 2024
What will the effective US tariff rate on goods being imported into the United States be at the end of 2026?
9.62
Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?
65%
Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?
9%
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 10, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 20, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 17, 2024
What will the effective US tariff rate on goods being imported into the United States be at the end of 2026?
9.62
Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?
65%
Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?
9%