Question

How many small firearms per capita will there be in the US in 2029?

6 comments6

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction1.4 (1.18 - 1.67)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

1.177

1.399

1.666

5.6%

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Aug 11, 2019

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2030

SHOT Show 2025: Big Crowds, Lots of Energy, a Gazillion Guns

Breitbart•Jan 27, 2025

TSA Fined Travelers Record $23 Million For Packing Guns In Carry-On Bags In 2024

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

Census Bureau releases its 2024 population estimates for the United States and all 50 states

Independent•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many mass shootings will be reported in the United States in the following years?

628

Will a new constitutional amendment concerning firearms be ratified in the United States before 2029?

0.1%

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Aug 11, 2019

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2030

SHOT Show 2025: Big Crowds, Lots of Energy, a Gazillion Guns

Breitbart•Jan 27, 2025

TSA Fined Travelers Record $23 Million For Packing Guns In Carry-On Bags In 2024

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

Census Bureau releases its 2024 population estimates for the United States and all 50 states

Independent•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many mass shootings will be reported in the United States in the following years?

628

Will a new constitutional amendment concerning firearms be ratified in the United States before 2029?

0.1%

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%