How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

conditional

condition

Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025?

9 forecasters

if yes

if no

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

243

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

197

13 comments13

Make a Prediction

Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025?	How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
if yes	My Prediction: -
if no	My Prediction: -

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>5k
community	149.6	243.1	1.484k	11.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	149.6	—
median	243.1	—
upper 75%	1.484k	—
Upper bound
>5k	11.5%	—

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Nov 18, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 10, 2026

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

2024-2025 Leaderboard

What to know about bird flu in 2025, from how it's spread to symptoms and egg impacts

CBS•Feb 13, 2025

After delay, CDC releases data signaling bird flu spread undetected in cows and people

NPR Online News•Feb 14, 2025

Scientists Worry About Undetected Bird Flu Infections

Newsweek•Feb 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

187

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Nov 18, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 10, 2026

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

2024-2025 Leaderboard

What to know about bird flu in 2025, from how it's spread to symptoms and egg impacts

CBS•Feb 13, 2025

After delay, CDC releases data signaling bird flu spread undetected in cows and people

NPR Online News•Feb 14, 2025

Scientists Worry About Undetected Bird Flu Infections

Newsweek•Feb 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

187