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Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

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You / Median Respondent		My Prediction		Me
Your forecast of Crowd Median	65%

Your forecast	57%

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Authors:

skmmcj

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The Curve

Artificial Intelligence

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Dec 17, 2024

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Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Exclusive: New Research Shows AI Strategically Lying

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Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Comments

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Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Curve

Artificial Intelligence

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Dec 17, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Exclusive: New Research Shows AI Strategically Lying

Time•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Comments

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?