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Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

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You / Median Respondent		My Prediction		Me
Your forecast of Crowd Median	60%

Your forecast	46%

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Authors:

skmmcj

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The Curve

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI trained o1 and o3 to ‘think’ about its safety policy

TechCrunch•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Will at least 20% of respondents name "advancement of computers/technology" as the most important problem facing the US in 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Curve

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI trained o1 and o3 to ‘think’ about its safety policy

TechCrunch•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Will at least 20% of respondents name "advancement of computers/technology" as the most important problem facing the US in 2030?

Comments

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Will at least 20% of respondents name "advancement of computers/technology" as the most important problem facing the US in 2030?

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Will at least 20% of respondents name "advancement of computers/technology" as the most important problem facing the US in 2030?

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Will at least 20% of respondents name "advancement of computers/technology" as the most important problem facing the US in 2030?