Group

In 2029, will a single AI training run consume as much electricity in a month as a city of 100,000 people?

6 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Your forecast of Crowd Median

Your forecast

Make a Prediction

You / Median Respondent		My Prediction		Me
Your forecast of Crowd Median	60%

Your forecast	45%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Curve

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Dec 17, 2024

A.I. Data Centers Are Emitting Nearly as Much Greenhouse Gases As Commercial Airlines

Observer (NY)•Dec 18, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?

6.64k

Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Curve

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Dec 17, 2024

A.I. Data Centers Are Emitting Nearly as Much Greenhouse Gases As Commercial Airlines

Observer (NY)•Dec 18, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?

6.64k

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

In 2029, will a single AI training run consume as much electricity in a month as a city of 100,000 people?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?

Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Comments

What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?

Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?

Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?

Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?