Question

Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?

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Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction90% (83% - 95%)

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community: 90%

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Israeli Strikes Kill at Least 5 in Southern Lebanon as Ceasefire Violations Continue

AntiWar•Dec 13, 2024

Israeli strikes kill five in southern Lebanon amid shaky ceasefire

Al Jazeera•Dec 13, 2024

Middle East latest: Hezbollah vows to continue resistance after ceasefire

•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

0.1%

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? comments

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Israeli Strikes Kill at Least 5 in Southern Lebanon as Ceasefire Violations Continue

AntiWar•Dec 13, 2024

Israeli strikes kill five in southern Lebanon amid shaky ceasefire

Al Jazeera•Dec 13, 2024

Middle East latest: Hezbollah vows to continue resistance after ceasefire

•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

0.1%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

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Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Comments

Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?

Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?