📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

conditional
condition

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?

284

What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?

227
2
0

Make a Prediction

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025?

What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<25
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1k
...
...
...
...
...
0.3%
198.6
283.8
517
11.6%

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
johnnycaffeine
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:

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