conditional
if yes
if no
Make a Prediction
CDF
The question "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?" resolves.
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <25 | 0.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 180.4 | — |
| median | 259.6 | — |
| upper 75% | 419.4 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1k | 8.3% | — |
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 30, 2024
Closed:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Feb 1, 2031
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Nov 30, 2024
Closed:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Feb 1, 2031
