Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024?

Resolved :Yes65%
55
Total Forecasters28
Community Prediction65% (60% - 81%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 65%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
36.0
Community Peer Score
4.9
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
johnnycaffeine
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Include Bots:Yes
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