Question

Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction6% (5% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 6%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 9, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Environment & Climate

Alarmists Predict 246,082 Deaths in Barcelona from Climate Change

Breitbart•Jan 27, 2025

Study projects millions of European heat deaths as world warms

Associated Press•Jan 27, 2025

Terrifying study predicts exactly how many people will DIE from climate change by 2099

Daily Mail•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

66.6%

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

60.2%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 9, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Environment & Climate

Alarmists Predict 246,082 Deaths in Barcelona from Climate Change

Breitbart•Jan 27, 2025

Study projects millions of European heat deaths as world warms

Associated Press•Jan 27, 2025

Terrifying study predicts exactly how many people will DIE from climate change by 2099

Daily Mail•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

66.6%

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

60.2%