Question

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

Total Forecasters5

Community Prediction2036-01-07 (2030-03-05 - 2060-11-05)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2075-12-31
community	2030	2036	2060	15.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2030	—
median	2036	—
upper 75%	2060	—
Upper bound
>2075-12-31	15.2%	—

Authors:

Jacob314

Opened:

Jan 14, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2074

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2075

Computing and Math

Google unveils a quantum chip. Could it help unlock the universe's deepest secrets?

NPR Online News•Feb 19, 2025

Powerful quantum computers in years not decades, says Microsoft

•Feb 20, 2025

Google has unveiled a new quantum computer chip that cracks a '30-year challenge in the field'

Business Insider•Feb 20, 2025

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