Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

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Question

Will the average daily temperature for December 2024 recorded by the Barrow/Port Rogers NWS weather station (on the Arctic coast of Alaska) exceed the 1945-2023 average for December by ≥4 degrees F?

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Total Forecasters29
Community Prediction58% (15% - 65%)

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community: 58%
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johnnycaffeine
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Question Weight:50%
Include Bots:Yes
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