Question

Before Jan 1, 2025, will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election scheduled for 2025?

Resolved:No

53 comments53

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

17.5%

(8% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 17.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

79.3

Community Peer Score

7.9

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Dec 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 12, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 12, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?

10%

Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024?

84%

When will a referendum on Quebec independence take place?

Aug 2030

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Dec 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 12, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 12, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?

10%

Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024?

84%

When will a referendum on Quebec independence take place?

Aug 2030

Before Jan 1, 2025, will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election scheduled for 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?

Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024?

When will a referendum on Quebec independence take place?

Comments

Will Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, call for general elections before 2026?

Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024?

When will a referendum on Quebec independence take place?

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