Question

Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?

41 comments41

Total Forecasters240

Community Prediction38%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 38%

median 38.0%mean 39.1%

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

46.2

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.3%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.55

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Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

A new life on Mars? Expect toxic dust, bad vibes and insects for lunch

New Scientist•Nov 13, 2024

Celebrate Mars New Year Now Because The Next One Won’t Come Until 2026

Forbes•Nov 13, 2024

Should humans plan to live on Mars? Probably not anytime soon : Short Wave : NPR

NPR Online News•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

46.2

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.3%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.55