Question

Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?

41 comments41

Total Forecasters239

Community Prediction39.1% (20% - 55%)

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50%

community: 39.1%

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Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Human settlement of Mars isn’t as far off as you might think

Raw Story•Dec 18, 2024

The Moon might be older than scientists previously thought − a new study shines light on its history

The Conversation•Dec 18, 2024

The moon may be more than 100 million years older than previously thought, study finds

NBC•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

40.5

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.57

Comments

? comments

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Human settlement of Mars isn’t as far off as you might think

Raw Story•Dec 18, 2024

The Moon might be older than scientists previously thought − a new study shines light on its history

The Conversation•Dec 18, 2024

The moon may be more than 100 million years older than previously thought, study finds

NBC•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

40.5

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.57

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?

Make a Prediction

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

Comments

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?