Question

Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?

41 comments41

Total Forecasters242

Community Prediction35% (20% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Sep 24, 2019

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Will Humans Be Living in Space in the Next 50 Years?

•Mar 2, 2025

It might be easier to live on the Moon than we thought, scientists say

Independent•Mar 7, 2025

Why NASA Is Trying to Go Back to the Moon

New York Times•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

40.9

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.1%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.73

Comments

? comments

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Sep 24, 2019

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Will Humans Be Living in Space in the Next 50 Years?

•Mar 2, 2025

It might be easier to live on the Moon than we thought, scientists say

Independent•Mar 7, 2025

Why NASA Is Trying to Go Back to the Moon

New York Times•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

40.9

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.1%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.73