Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

conditional

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

13 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

20%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

3 comments3

Make a Prediction

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?	Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 20%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Fears of a pandemic brewing as overflowing hospitals are told to test respiratory patients for bird flu

Daily Mail•Feb 12, 2025

New Bird Flu Strain in Cows and Animal Infections Raise Concern for Human Exposure

Scientific American•Feb 13, 2025

What to know about bird flu in 2025, from how it's spread to symptoms and egg impacts

CBS•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

187

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Fears of a pandemic brewing as overflowing hospitals are told to test respiratory patients for bird flu

Daily Mail•Feb 12, 2025

New Bird Flu Strain in Cows and Animal Infections Raise Concern for Human Exposure

Scientific American•Feb 13, 2025

What to know about bird flu in 2025, from how it's spread to symptoms and egg impacts

CBS•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

187