Question

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters58

Community Prediction27%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 27%

median 27.0%mean 31.8%

Authors:

randallburns

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Operation Enduring Freedom

Operation Freedom's Sentinel

Iraq War

Operation New Dawn

Operation Inherent Resolve

United States Army

US Armed Forces

United States

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

randallburns

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Operation Enduring Freedom

Operation Freedom's Sentinel

Iraq War

Operation New Dawn

Operation Inherent Resolve

United States Army

US Armed Forces

United States

Suicides in the US military increased in 2023, continuing a long-term trend

Associated Press•Nov 15, 2024

Military suicides still on the rise, but Army gets good news after recent surge

USA Today•Nov 15, 2024

U.S. military suicides increased in 2023, continuing long-term trend

PBS NewsHour•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%