Question

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters57

Community Prediction27% (15% - 36%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 27%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

randallburns

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Operation Enduring Freedom

Operation Freedom's Sentinel

Iraq War

Operation New Dawn

Operation Inherent Resolve

United States Army

US Armed Forces

United States

Americans are living longer, thanks to pandemic's end, fewer opioid deaths

USA Today•Dec 19, 2024

Russia Suffers Deadliest Day of War So Far: Kyiv

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

US Military Places New Safety Rules on Key Part of Osprey After Near-Crash

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

randallburns

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Operation Enduring Freedom

Operation Freedom's Sentinel

Iraq War

Operation New Dawn

Operation Inherent Resolve

United States Army

US Armed Forces

United States

Americans are living longer, thanks to pandemic's end, fewer opioid deaths

USA Today•Dec 19, 2024

Russia Suffers Deadliest Day of War So Far: Kyiv

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

US Military Places New Safety Rules on Key Part of Osprey After Near-Crash

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

Make a Prediction

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Comments

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?