Question

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters1145

Community Prediction7% (5% - 17%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

From Gaza to the West Bank: Israel’s Unyielding War Machine

CounterPunch•Feb 12, 2025

Israel Reportedly Planning To Launch ‘Significant Strikes’ Against Iran Nuclear Sites This Year

Daily Wire•Feb 13, 2025

US intelligence agencies believe Israel is likely to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this year

CNN•Feb 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

60%

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

15%

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