MetaculusM

Question

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction12% (4% - 33%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

2025 Leaderboard

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Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Jan 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

2025 Leaderboard

An agency tried to regulate SpaceX — now Musk could control its fate

Raw Story•Feb 12, 2025

Elon Musk's SpaceX Teams Up with FAA to Push for Safer, Modernized Air Traffic System

Townhall•Feb 18, 2025

Plane crashes 2025: How many have there been in the US, how many people have been killed?

USA Today•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch