Question

When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?

6 comments6

Total Forecasters3

Community PredictionRevealed

in 11 hours

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2025-12-31
community	...	...	...	—
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	...	—
median	...	—
upper 75%	...	—
Upper bound
>2025-12-31	—	—

Authors:

Opened:

Feb 17, 2025

Closes:

Sep 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

Israel plotting attack on Iranian nuclear sites now that Trump is in office: report

New York Post•Feb 13, 2025

Israel Reportedly Planning To Launch ‘Significant Strikes’ Against Iran Nuclear Sites This Year

Daily Wire•Feb 13, 2025

WSJ: Israel Planning Major Attack on Iranian Nuclear Sites

Democracy Now•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

10%

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

20%

Comments

? comments