Question

Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?

Resolved :No46%

11 comments11

Total Forecasters234

Community Prediction46% (20% - 80%)

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50%

community: 46%

Did this actually happen?No

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greg-admin

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Environment & Climate

2016-2017 Leaderboard

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

Environmental science

Climate change denial

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Coal use hitting all-time high in 2024, which is on track to be hottest year ever, report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

Wild temperature swings are coming the rest of the year. Here’s what to expect

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

greg-admin

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

2016-2017 Leaderboard

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

Environmental science

Climate change denial

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Coal use hitting all-time high in 2024, which is on track to be hottest year ever, report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

Wild temperature swings are coming the rest of the year. Here’s what to expect

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?

Make a Prediction

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Comments

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?