Question

When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?

Total Forecasters116

Community Prediction2030-01-01 (2030-01-01 - 2030-01-01)

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weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2030-01-01
community	>Jan 2030	>Jan 2030	>Jan 2030	82.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	>Jan 2030	—
median	>Jan 2030	—
upper 75%	>Jan 2030	—
Upper bound
>2030-01-01	82.5%	—

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Oct 6, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Aerospace engineering

Kármán line

NASA will launch dual missions to explore solar wind and the 'origins of the universe'

•Mar 2, 2025

Will Humans Be Living in Space in the Next 50 Years?

•Mar 2, 2025

NASA’s two stuck astronauts are finally closing in on their return to Earth after 9 months in space

Associated Press•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years?

18.5

How many people will be in space on April 12, 2030?

24.8

When will the 10,000th human reach space?

2051-05-05

Comments

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Oct 6, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Aerospace engineering

Kármán line

NASA will launch dual missions to explore solar wind and the 'origins of the universe'

•Mar 2, 2025

Will Humans Be Living in Space in the Next 50 Years?

•Mar 2, 2025

NASA’s two stuck astronauts are finally closing in on their return to Earth after 9 months in space

Associated Press•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years?

18.5

How many people will be in space on April 12, 2030?

24.8

When will the 10,000th human reach space?

2051-05-05