Question
Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025?
Resolved :No0.2%Total Forecasters173
Community Prediction0.2% (0.1% - 2%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
81.1
Community Peer Score
19.3
Authors:
Opened:Jan 10, 2025
Closes:Feb 14, 2025
Resolves:Feb 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
60%
Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?
6%
Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, "Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act", be in effect on January 1, 2026?
80%
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 10, 2025
Closes:Feb 14, 2025
Resolves:Feb 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
60%
Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?
6%
Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, "Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act", be in effect on January 1, 2026?
80%