Question

How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?

Resolved :14.41

13 comments13

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction4.41 (1.59 - 17.2)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

1.593

4.408

17.21

What was the final result?1

Community Baseline Score

92.0

Community Peer Score

8.6

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

converse

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2019 Leaderboard

Impeachment of Donald Trump

Republican Party (US)

Donald Trump

US Senate

Mitt Romney Downplays Concerns About Donald Trump's 'Retribution'

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Outgoing 'RINO' senator makes bold prediction for who will succeed Trump… but there's a catch

Daily Mail•Dec 17, 2024

Trump Cabinet appointments putting Mike Johnson’s 'wafer-thin' House majority 'in peril'

AlterNet•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

Will the Senate vote to reject at least one of Trump's cabinet-level nominees?

25%

Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?

0.4%

Comments

? comments