Question

[PRACTICE] Will humans go extinct before 2100?

no comments0

Total Forecasters13

Community Prediction5% (3% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 15, 2025

Closed:

Jan 15, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 11, 2025

Question Weight:0%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

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Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.8%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 15, 2025

Closed:

Jan 15, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 11, 2025

Question Weight:0%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

The Doomsday Clock reset comes Tuesday: How worried should we be?

USA Today•Jan 28, 2025

Doomsday Clock now closer than ever to midnight: ‘Probability of global disaster’

New York Post•Jan 28, 2025

Doomsday Clock 2025: Scientists set new time

CNN•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.8%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%