Question

[PRACTICE] What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

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14 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 14

Orthomyxoviridae

Other 24 known HIVF

Coronaviridae

Not in 26 known HIVF

Make a Prediction

Pathogen		My Prediction		Me
Orthomyxoviridae	46.9%

Other 24 known HIVF	22.9%

Coronaviridae	16.7%

Not in 26 known HIVF	13.5%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Total: ?

(? remaining)

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 15, 2025

Closed:

Jan 15, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 13, 2025

Question Weight:0%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 15, 2025

Closed:

Jan 15, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 13, 2025

Question Weight:0%

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

What Is Human Metapneumovirus, and Why Are Cases Rising in China?

Scientific American•Jan 25, 2025

HMPV, Bird Flu and Norovirus: What Should US Be Most Worried About?

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Will there be another pandemic after covid-19 and are we prepared?

New Scientist•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

16%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

60%