Question

Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?

46 comments46

Total Forecasters239

Community Prediction82.6% (74% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 82.6%

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Oct 19, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2500

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2500

Hypothetical types of biochemistry

Luca is the progenitor of all life on Earth. But its genesis has implications far beyond our planet

Guardian•Jan 19, 2025

Astrophysically-Elusive Phosphorus Is Key To All Life On Earth

Forbes•Jan 20, 2025

Why a new telescope may help the search for alien life in space : Short Wave : NPR

NPR Online News•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?

25%

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?

2072-10-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Oct 19, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2500

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2500

Hypothetical types of biochemistry

Luca is the progenitor of all life on Earth. But its genesis has implications far beyond our planet

Guardian•Jan 19, 2025

Astrophysically-Elusive Phosphorus Is Key To All Life On Earth

Forbes•Jan 20, 2025

Why a new telescope may help the search for alien life in space : Short Wave : NPR

NPR Online News•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered before 2045?

25%

If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?

When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?

2072-10-27