Question

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction

90%

(71% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Jan 23, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2025

AGI Readiness Index

Artificial Intelligence

Is the tech industry ready for AI 'super agents'?

Business Insider•Mar 28, 2025

Will A.I. Soon Outsmart Humans? Play This Puzzle to Find Out.

New York Times•Mar 27, 2025

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Psychology Today•Mar 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Jul 2031

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

11 Feb 2028

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

23%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Jan 23, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2025

AGI Readiness Index

Artificial Intelligence

Is the tech industry ready for AI 'super agents'?

Business Insider•Mar 28, 2025

Will A.I. Soon Outsmart Humans? Play This Puzzle to Find Out.

New York Times•Mar 27, 2025

Beyond Scaling Artificial Intelligence

Psychology Today•Mar 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Jul 2031

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

11 Feb 2028

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

23%

MetaculusM

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

Make a Prediction

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

Comments

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

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