MetaculusM

Question

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

1

Total Forecasters0

Community PredictionRevealed

in 4 days

Make a Prediction

50%

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 18, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Artificial Intelligence

AI that can match humans at any task will be here in five to 10 years, Google DeepMind CEO says

NBC•Mar 18, 2025

China is on the brink of human-level intelligence – and it’s about to cause chaos

Independent•Mar 16, 2025

AI's $3 trillion fork in the road

Business Insider•Mar 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 18, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Artificial Intelligence

AI that can match humans at any task will be here in five to 10 years, Google DeepMind CEO says

NBC•Mar 18, 2025

China is on the brink of human-level intelligence – and it’s about to cause chaos

Independent•Mar 16, 2025

AI's $3 trillion fork in the road

Business Insider•Mar 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?