Question

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

6 comments6

Make a Prediction

50%

This question is in the Upcoming stage, and will be open for predictions soon

Authors:

Haiku

Opens:

Mar 19, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

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Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?

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Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haiku

Opens:

Mar 19, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Has China just built the world’s first human-level AI?

Independent•Mar 11, 2025

Has China just built the world’s first human-level AI?

Independent•Mar 11, 2025

The ‘Oppenheimer Moment’ That Looms Over Today’s AI Leaders

Time•Mar 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

77%

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

13%