Question

Will the S&P 500 index go up in January 2025?

Resolved :Yes70.8%

74 comments74

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction70.8% (63.6% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70.8%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

44.6

Community Peer Score

5.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 23, 2025

Closes:

Jan 23, 2025

Resolves:

Feb 1, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

One of Wall Street's biggest bulls sees the S&P 500 soaring 16% early next year before a sharp sell-off in the 2nd half

Business Insider•Feb 16, 2025

Evercore ISI sees more S&P 500 gains next year on Trump and a bull case of 7,400

CNBC•Feb 16, 2025

One of Wall Street's biggest bulls sees the S&P 500 soaring 16% early next year before a sharp sell-off in the 2nd half

Business Insider•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025?

66%

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the following dates?

6.56k

Will the S&P 500 index experience a drawdown of at least 40% before 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Jan 23, 2025

Closes:

Jan 23, 2025

Resolves:

Feb 1, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

One of Wall Street's biggest bulls sees the S&P 500 soaring 16% early next year before a sharp sell-off in the 2nd half

Business Insider•Feb 16, 2025

Evercore ISI sees more S&P 500 gains next year on Trump and a bull case of 7,400

CNBC•Feb 16, 2025

One of Wall Street's biggest bulls sees the S&P 500 soaring 16% early next year before a sharp sell-off in the 2nd half

Business Insider•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025?

66%

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the following dates?

6.56k